The US appears poised to strike Iran within days.
While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not.
So, if no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, then what are the possible outcomes?
1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy
US air and naval forces conduct limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij unit - a paramilitary force under the control of the IRGC - ballistic missile launch and storage sites as well as Iran's nuclear programme.
An already weakened regime is toppled, transitioning eventually to a genuine democracy where Iran can rejoin the rest of the world.
This is a highly optimistic scenario. Western military intervention in both Iraq and Libya did not bring a smooth transition to democracy. Although it ended brutal dictatorships in both cases, it ushered in years of chaos and bloodshed.
Syria, which conducted its own revolution, overthrowing President Bashar Al-Assad without Western military support in 2024, has so far fared better.
Is the US preparing to strike Iran again?
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2. Regime survives but moderates its policies
This could broadly be called the "Venezuelan model" whereby swift, powerful US action leaves the regime intact but with its policies moderated.
In Iran's case, this would mean the Islamic Republic survived, which won't satisfy large numbers of Iranians, but is forced to curtail its support for violent militias across the Middle East, cease or curtail its domestic nuclear and ballistic missile programmes as well as easing up on its suppression of protests.
Again, this is at the more unlikely end of the scale.
The Islamic Republic leadership has remained defiant and resistant to change for 47 years. It appears incapable of changing course now.
3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule
Many think this is the most likely possible outcome.
While the regime is clearly unpopular with many, and each successive wave of protests over the years weakens it further, there remains a huge and pervasive security deep state with a vested interest in the status quo.
The principal reasons why the protests have so far failed to overthrow the regime is because there have been no significant defections to their side, while those in control are prepared to use unlimited force and brutality to remain in power.
In the confusion of the aftermath of any US strikes it is conceivable that Iran ends up being ruled by a strong, military government composed largely of IRGC figures.
4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbours
Iran has vowed to retaliate against any US attack, saying that "its finger is on the trigger".
It is clearly no match for the might of the US Navy and Air Force but it could still lash out with its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, many concealed in caves, underground or in remote mountainsides.
There are US bases and facilities dotted along the Arabian side of the Gulf, notably in Bahrain and Qatar, but Iran could also, if it chose, target some of the critical infrastructure of any nation it considered was complicit in a US attack, such as Jordan or Israel.
The devastating missile and drone attack on Saudi Aramco's petrochemical facilities in 2019, attributed to an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, showed the Saudis just how vulnerable they were to Iranian missiles.
Iran's Gulf Arab neighbours, all US allies, are understandably extremely jittery right now that any US military action is going to end up rebounding on them.
Read more @https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3kenge1k9o
While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is not.
So, if no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump decides to order US forces to attack, then what are the possible outcomes?
1. Targeted, surgical strikes, minimal civilian casualties, a transition to democracy
US air and naval forces conduct limited, precision strikes targeting military bases of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij unit - a paramilitary force under the control of the IRGC - ballistic missile launch and storage sites as well as Iran's nuclear programme.
An already weakened regime is toppled, transitioning eventually to a genuine democracy where Iran can rejoin the rest of the world.
This is a highly optimistic scenario. Western military intervention in both Iraq and Libya did not bring a smooth transition to democracy. Although it ended brutal dictatorships in both cases, it ushered in years of chaos and bloodshed.
Syria, which conducted its own revolution, overthrowing President Bashar Al-Assad without Western military support in 2024, has so far fared better.
Is the US preparing to strike Iran again?
Iran protesters treated in secret to avoid arrest
'We all know someone who was killed' - Iran protesters tell BBC of brutal crackdown
What next for Iran's supreme leader?
2. Regime survives but moderates its policies
This could broadly be called the "Venezuelan model" whereby swift, powerful US action leaves the regime intact but with its policies moderated.
In Iran's case, this would mean the Islamic Republic survived, which won't satisfy large numbers of Iranians, but is forced to curtail its support for violent militias across the Middle East, cease or curtail its domestic nuclear and ballistic missile programmes as well as easing up on its suppression of protests.
Again, this is at the more unlikely end of the scale.
The Islamic Republic leadership has remained defiant and resistant to change for 47 years. It appears incapable of changing course now.
3. Regime collapses, replaced by military rule
Many think this is the most likely possible outcome.
While the regime is clearly unpopular with many, and each successive wave of protests over the years weakens it further, there remains a huge and pervasive security deep state with a vested interest in the status quo.
The principal reasons why the protests have so far failed to overthrow the regime is because there have been no significant defections to their side, while those in control are prepared to use unlimited force and brutality to remain in power.
In the confusion of the aftermath of any US strikes it is conceivable that Iran ends up being ruled by a strong, military government composed largely of IRGC figures.
4. Iran retaliates by attacking US forces and neighbours
Iran has vowed to retaliate against any US attack, saying that "its finger is on the trigger".
It is clearly no match for the might of the US Navy and Air Force but it could still lash out with its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, many concealed in caves, underground or in remote mountainsides.
There are US bases and facilities dotted along the Arabian side of the Gulf, notably in Bahrain and Qatar, but Iran could also, if it chose, target some of the critical infrastructure of any nation it considered was complicit in a US attack, such as Jordan or Israel.
The devastating missile and drone attack on Saudi Aramco's petrochemical facilities in 2019, attributed to an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, showed the Saudis just how vulnerable they were to Iranian missiles.
Iran's Gulf Arab neighbours, all US allies, are understandably extremely jittery right now that any US military action is going to end up rebounding on them.
Read more @https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3kenge1k9o
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